New federal statistics indicate that the number of people enrolled in Affordable Care Act (ACA) health insurance plans dropped by approximately 3 million this February compared to the same period last year. According to a report released on Friday by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, enrollment figures fell by 13%, decreasing from 22.1 million in 2025 to 19.2 million this year.
While federal officials suggested that this decline might be linked to ongoing efforts to curb fraudulent or phantom enrollments, healthcare analysts point to a different cause. Many experts argue the drop is driven by the January 1 expiration of federal subsidies. This policy change led to a sharp rise in plan costs, leaving many individuals unable to sustain their premium payments.
Cynthia Cox, vice president and director of the ACA program at the healthcare research nonprofit KFF, noted that many subscribers experienced premium hikes ranging from double to triple digits. She emphasized that real individuals have indeed lost their coverage as a direct result of these increased financial burdens. The new data, which accounts for coverage in February after the expiration of a nonpayment grace period, offers the government’s first official insight into the impact of these higher costs on total enrollment.
Earlier government estimates from January suggested a drop of 800,000 participants compared to the previous year, marking the first time in four years that enrollment had declined during the active shopping window. KFF projects that the total number of participants in this federal program may continue to slide throughout the remainder of the year, potentially reaching a low of approximately 17.5 million.
This represents a significant contraction for the flagship government program, which provides subsidized health insurance to working-age adults who do not qualify for Medicaid. The ACA has served as a vital safety net for gig workers, hairstylists, farmers, and ranchers who lack employer-sponsored insurance. The expired subsidies were the subject of intense debate in Congress last fall, with various lawmakers advocating for their renewal as affordability remains a primary concern for voters heading into the upcoming November elections.
