President Donald Trump’s endorsement faces another significant test this Saturday as Louisiana voters cast their ballots in the GOP primary runoff for Senate. With expectations of low voter turnout, the contest remains unpredictable, potentially challenging the former president’s ability to dictate the political narrative in the Bayou State.
Trump previously played a major role in ousting incumbent GOP Senator Bill Cassidy, who had voted to convict the former president during his second impeachment trial following the January 6, 2021, Capitol riot. In the May 16 primary, Cassidy finished third with only 25% of the vote, failing to secure a spot in the runoff.
Representative Julia Letlow, who received Trump’s backing, led that initial contest with 45% of the vote, followed by state Treasurer John Fleming, who secured 28%. Because no candidate reached a majority, the two are now competing head-to-head. Letlow is currently viewed as the front-runner, bolstered significantly by Trump’s vocal support.
During a tele-rally on Thursday, Trump encouraged his supporters to rally behind Letlow, describing her as a “fearless champion” for Louisiana. Letlow responded by committing to Trump’s “America First” platform, characterizing the runoff as a choice between a “real conservative fighter” and a “career politician.” Despite this, some Republican strategists suggest that if turnout is exceptionally low and dominated by highly dedicated conservatives, Fleming could potentially pull off an upset. Louisiana GOP strategist Lionel Rainey III noted that while Letlow is expected to win, the margin could be much closer than anticipated.
Fleming believes he can attract voters by emphasizing a more conservative record and personal practice. He argued that the primary dynamic was centered on defeating Cassidy, whereas voters are now examining the specific qualifications of the remaining candidates. A former congressman and founding member of the House Freedom Caucus, Fleming also served in the first Trump administration as a deputy chief of staff. He has positioned himself as the authentic “MAGA conservative,” critiquing Letlow’s past stances on foreign aid and diversity, equity, and inclusion policies, though Letlow has stated she has since reversed her position on the latter.
Strategist James Hartman noted that Trump’s early endorsement has effectively insulated Letlow from accusations of being liberal. Furthermore, Letlow has garnered support from other prominent Louisiana Republicans, including House Majority Leader Steve Scalise and Representative Clay Higgins. Higgins endorsed Letlow after Fleming shared a controversial AI-generated video of her, which was subsequently removed from social media.
Looking ahead, both candidates have addressed the potential overhaul of U.S. election laws via the SAVE America Act. Trump emphasized that Letlow would support the measure, and Letlow confirmed she is prepared to eliminate the filibuster to ensure its passage. Fleming also expressed willingness to end the filibuster if necessary, though he noted reservations regarding the long-term impact of such a move on future legislative agendas.
